Meteorologists are getting the first indication of a possible cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea. But there is still uncertainty about its magnitude. A cyclonic wind field is formed in the South East Arabian Sea and near Lakshadweep region. An official of the Meteorological Department has said that due to its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form in the area.
The official said that there is no chance of it becoming a cyclonic storm at present. So far there is no uniformity in model predictions. We will have to wait for a few more days, then the situation will become clear. October to December is one of the favorable periods for the formation of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea due to warm sea temperatures.
No tropical storm occurred over the Arabian Sea during post-monsoon weather in the year 2022. In contrast, the Bay of Bengal received two tropical storms - Sitarang and Mendos. In this way, the chances of a cyclone in the Arabian Sea increases.
If a cyclone forms, this will be the name
According to the formula adopted for naming cyclones in the Indian Ocean region, if a tropical storm forms in the Indian Ocean region, it will be named 'Tej'.
It is to be mentioned here that the storm that occurred earlier was named Biparjoy which wreaked havoc in the coastal areas of Pakistan in addition to Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat of India. Meteorological experts say that cyclonic circulation conditions are forming over the southeastern parts of the Arabian Sea.
What will the storm be like?
Fears are also being expressed about the new storm surge that it can cause terrible destruction. After this alert, the agencies have increased surveillance on the movements of the Arabian Sea. In fact, the private weather agency Skymet Weather has said that the conditions are developing in the southeastern parts of the Arabian Sea next to the equatorial region. Where a positive IOD and mildly favorable MJO can combine in the warm Indian Ocean to quickly produce a cyclonic disturbance.
How Cyclonic Storms Form
Meteorologists said that cyclonic storms are circular storms and form above the warm surface of the ocean. In the part of the equator where the direct rays of the sun fall, the ocean water is expected to warm. When its temperature reaches 25-26 degrees, the fear of cyclone formation increases. Experts say that cyclones form in hot areas like India.
Cyclone threat due to rising sea temperature
When the temperature of the ocean rises, the air above it also warms and because of the moisture there, it cools and rises. This allows ambient air to fill the space. Due to decreasing air pressure downwards, as cold air reaches there, it also warms up and starts rising. Once this cycle starts again, it continues to progress and it starts to form clouds. Which looks like a circular storm in the ocean. It is called a cyclone.
13 countries including India simultaneously name the storm
Naming of incoming storms in the Americas began in 1953, while in the Indian Ocean it began in 2004. There are 13 countries including India that simultaneously name the storm. These include India, Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Iran, Qatar, UAE, Thailand and Yemen. The World Metrological Organization of the United Nations has set the rules for it. It names only storms with speeds of at least 63 km/h.
India has given the name 'Tej'
In 2017, Bangladesh named the storm 'Okhi' and then India named the storm in Somalia as 'Gati'. Now the cyclone storm that occurred in 2023 was named 'Biparjoy' by Bangladesh and after that the name of the upcoming storm will be decided by India. India has named the next storm 'Tej'. The names that India has proposed for the next storm include Murasu, Aag, Neer, Prabhanjan, Ghurni, Ambud, Jaldhi and Veg.
Ambalal Patel has also predicted
Forecaster Ambalal Patel has recently said that another storm like Biparjoy is coming over Gujarat. Forecaster Ambalal Patel has made an alarming prediction. According to him, a storm like Biparjoy will occur in Arabsagar. On October 16, there will be a stir in the Arabian Sea. Low pressure will occur on October 18. And then there will be a cyclone on October 22 to 24. Which will strengthen by drawing the moisture of the Bay of Bengal. Soon after, the minimum temperature will drop due to western disturbance. Although it is difficult to predict where the cyclone will break at present, but if the cyclone breaks towards Oman, West Saurashtra will experience heavy rains. Otherwise, there is a possibility of heavy rain in the state.
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According to forecaster Ambalal Patel, however, going by the current situation, the cyclone is likely to move towards Oman. Apart from this, post monsoon will come from October 22 to 26. On October 17, the wind will blow on the sea coast. Due to which there will be rain on the coast of Saurashtra.
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